Research & Investment Strategy

The last minute deal on Greece, reached in the early hours of Tuesday 21st February 2012, should buy enough time for the euro area to sail toward safer waters and continue to restore the...

The Czech Republic (CZ) is a small, open economy exposed to swings in external demand, as its high degree of openness demonstrates.

The ‘bifurcation' framework remains valid. Yet, the probability of the worst case (‘€-geddon') has decreased since the end of 2011.  We see it at 15%, vs. 25% in December 2011.

The world's financial markets are getting off to an optimistic start in 2012

At the beginning of 2012, investor sentiment towards emerging markets equities remains at best mixed. 

In a move designed to widen the rift with the west, the government of the PM Viktor Orban adopted a new constitution on 1 January 2012 according to which "Republic" is omitted from...

Business (almost) as usual (our main case scenario - subjective probability 75%)  or "Eurogeddon" (alternative scenario - subjective probaility 25%)

In more normal times, most central banks steer their economies by changing a short-term interest rate. 

Two events stand out in the economic and financial landscape of 2011

2012 will be a bifurcation year. Our main case scenario: Negotiations of a ‘fiscal compact' for the euro area eventually succeed; the European Central Bank turns to quantitative easing to prevent...