Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

Brick by Brick: Unravelling China's property Puzzle

  • 02 May 2024 (10 min read)
KEY POINTS
China's property market has been in a persistent downturn since early 2022, deeper and more prolonged than previous corrections. With weakening fundamental drivers and subdued investment appetite, the long-standing housing market boom appears unlikely to return
The downturn has unique characteristics, distinct from crises in Japan in the 1990s or the US in 2007-2008. We estimate the theoretical market equilibrium at around 50% of the peak, but short-term outcomes depend heavily on uncertain future investment behaviour and potential policy interventions
Even a soft landing in the property market would pose headwinds for broader economic activity. Strategies to boost other sectors, such as infrastructure projects and export growth, may have limited effectiveness compared to previous efforts
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