Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

Colombian election: a left turn?

  • 10 May 2022 (7 min read)

Key points

  • Colombians will vote on 29 May to elect a new president for the 2022-2026 term. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on 19 June
  • Polls show left-wing Gustavo Petro from the Pacto Histórico coalition holding the lead, but he is unlikely to win outright in the first round
  • A runoff election will likely pit Petro against right-wing candidate Federico Gutiérrez from Equipo por Colombia. While still behind Petro in a hypothetical runoff election, Gutiérrez’s campaign is experiencing strong momentum and has managed to reduce the gap between the two contenders
  • Although Petro’s policy platform differs significantly from Colombia’s traditionally market-friendly framework, we believe it will be hard for him to pass any radical reforms through the country’s highly-fragmented Congress
  • A Petro victory will likely have an immediate effect on bond yields as investors may start questioning Colombia’s fiscal sustainability under his rule.
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