Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

Poles to the polls at a crossroad

  • 28 September 2023 (7 min read)

Key points
• The incumbent PiS-led coalition is seeking re-election after eight years in power. Its public support has diminished but it retains a modest lead in the polls
• But polls suggest a stalemate with the incumbent and opposition coalitions likely failing to reach a majority in the lower house of the Parliament. The pre-election debate has drifted towards more fractious social topics
• Fiscal slippage in 2023 is likely after an acceleration in populist measures in the run-up to elections. Any 2024 fiscal consolidation looks questionable given election pledges by all parties. Poland could be under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure next year
• Tensions with the EU have been escalating: The ongoing rule-of-law issue blocking the disbursement of EU funds, the EU migration pact, Ukraine grain ban, and military spending on Ukraine are all flash points for the Polish government

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